As someone who flies a few times a year and is preparing for two upcoming trips, I’ve been following the air travel industry closely. We’re probably all familiar with increased fuel surcharges, the cancellation of countless flights and routes as well as the oft-reported new charges to check a bag. What you may not have heard yet is that US Airways has announced it’s going to remove entertainment systems from all domestic flights. The situation is starting to beg the question… what’s the future of air travel and are any of us going to want to be a part of it? I’m coming up on my 13th and 14th trip in the last 3 years so I’m going to offer my take on it. Since we’ve managed to use miles to upgrade our economy tickets on nearly every trip, we’ve been somewhat immune to the woes of air travel, but here’s what I think anyway.
First and foremost, air travel is going to become a luxury again. Now I realize there are a lot of people in this country that really couldn’t afford to fly before but the bar is going to be raised higher. This means the middle-class is thinking about driving the kids to Disney World instead of flying and that lifelong wish of visiting Hawaii or Alaska will require a few more years of saving. I hope that it will spur the sort of ground-based efficiency we experienced in Japan but I know that America is a long, long way from that.
Those that can afford to fly are confronted with two options. Either you’re rich (or expensing it) and fly in an upgraded cabin or you get nickel and dimed on what will essentially be a really crappy experience. As someone who has seen the benefits of upgrades, I can say that while I hate the actual act of flying, I love the experience. The comfort, the meals, the entertainment and the special treatment are things those with money will contine paying for. There may be more teleconferences in the coming months/years but overall, there will still be a market. Everyone else will end up being those who simply have no other choice but to fly. Want to visit family in Wisconsin? Want to see the Buckingham Palace you’ve been saving 5 years for? You really have no logical choice but to fly. Unfortunately, it’s possible that the experience could leave such a bad taste in your mouth that you vow never to fly again.
So what future does the industry have? While it’s unlikely we’d get the large scale boycotting that a few media outlets are trying to encite, there will be shrinkage. A lot of our economy is dependent on air travel so it won’t disappear but it will force a change in the way the companies operate and how we view it. Something will have to change because the current system is broken. Whether that’s increased cost efficiency, some creative market segmentation or govertmental subsidy (please no) remains to be seen. Until then, happy flying!